FILLY & MARE TURF: while I believe the north american milers are a cut below their European counterparts, I believe the opposite is true in this filly & mare division. The three-headed frankel monstress is very very tough. I’ve always loved TATES CREEK- I bet her in her debut, when she broke her maiden, and pretty much every time thereafter and her record speaks for itself. Her only drawback is the distance- she really is a killer at a mile and an eighth, but this extra distance works against her. Heat haze is another machine and now gets rid of the erratic jose valdivia and gets the presence of jerry bailey, which will sure to help. With heat haze, you have to time her run just perfectly as she packs a big wallop down the lane when asked for one big run. The third frankel, megahertz is more of a grinder, and that style often does not play well on the anita turf course. She’d merit a much better chance on a course like del mar. MUSICAL CHIMES ran a monster race for drysdale off the shelf, as she was finishing fastest of all in the yellow ribbon. Notwithstanding that late run, I think tates creek has a huge tactical advantage over a filly like ‘chimes. I’ll take the first over trip over the last-to-first trip every time. The horse who scares me is VOODOO DANCER, who is so damn consistent, it’s scary. She’s been away since july, but she’s fired big fresh in the past and she handles the course and distance. Of the others, I guess islington is scary, but I didn’t like her race last year in the same race and I’m tossing her this year.
JUVENILLE : can we beat cuvee? I’m going to pay to find out, as this one goes favored largely because the competition is the worst we’ve seen in years. All the favorites- eurosilver, ruler’s court, birdstone are all passing this race, making this renewal a very boring affair. Ok, now that I’ve passed on CUVEE, who will be 7/5 and no value, marooned on the outside with a sprinter’s pedigree, I’m going to play MINISTER ERIC. While he’s never won or gone a route, mandella has always been high on this one and he has that long, loping stride that makes him likely to enjoy routing. TIGER HUNT is my second choice, but at 7/2 or so, he’s no great value. RACE FOR GLORY will be my back-up in here as he has the breeding and conformation to enjoy the distance. ‘glory gets the rail draw and will be forwardly placed throughout; at 8/1, he’s the best value in the race.
TURF : STORMING HOME STORMING HOME STORMING HOME. What a great race- most of the great turf marathoners have made it to the big day and we get to see once and for all that storming home is the best turfer in the world. He’s big, he’s strong and he’s fast and provided, there’s no photographer spooking him near the finish line, I think we’re going to see a real tour de force performance tomorrow. He’s not a lock as high chaparral, the tin man, falbrav, and johar all have chances. Conspicuous by his absence on this aforementioned list is SULAMANI, whom I firmly believe is one of the most overrated horses in the world. He was hopelessly beaten in the Arlington million, but storming home’s antics elevated him to the top. I’m throwing him out completely and I hope the godolphin folks go home empty-handed. The most interesting longshots are the mandella duo- johar and the tin man. Johar is bred to be a champion and may just be coming into his own now. He was put in the awkward position of being on the lead in his last, but rest assured he’ll be off the pace tomorrow. The tin man has always been just a cut below the best, but he was not disgraced vs. high chaparral in last year’s running. I expect him to outrun his odds. My play- storming home over falbrav, high chaparral, the tin man, and johar.
CLASSIC : some of the marquee names are gone, but this is still a great race. I don’t have a strong opinion in here, other than to say that I’m going to play a horse with some tactical speed. It’s rare to see a horse win from way off the pace going a 1 1/4M at santa anita. That means, I’m left with only four choices- MEDAGLIA D’ORO, HOLD THAT TIGER, TEN MOST WANTED and CONGAREE. I’m throwing funny cide out the proverbial window as he couldn’t be coming into a race in a less prepared fashion; if he wins, I’ll be shocked out of my mind. Dynaver, the wiseguy/andy beyer selection is TOO F-ING SLOW TO WIN. Chuck him. Perfect drift would be an interesting option, but the BC Classic as an afterthought? Doesn’t seem right to me. Medaglia d’oro is top class and proven at the distance, but the layoff scares me a bit, notwithstanding the frankel factor. Ten Most Wanted is a lovely horse- he’s got a very efficient, loping stride and since they added the blinkers, he’s been able to sustain his run much better. I love 3 year olds on the improve, so he’s my first pick in here. My second choice is Congaree- who may not be best at a mile and a quarter, has the speed to scare everybody. He’s making his second start off a layoff and he’s been training like a champ in the mornings. If he gets off at north of 5/1, I’m playing him.
In summary, I love Tates Creek and Storming Home- they’ll get heavy play from me in all the pools. Leaning towards ten most wanted and congaree in the classic and I may pass the juvenile altogether.
If anyone is sticking around after the ‘Classic, I’m playing tricks her in the 10th and nose the trade in the 11th.
Good luck everyone.
[This message was edited by mazeltrick on October 25, 2003 at 02:58 AM.]
[This message was edited by mazeltrick on October 25, 2003 at 03:00 AM.]
JUVENILLE : can we beat cuvee? I’m going to pay to find out, as this one goes favored largely because the competition is the worst we’ve seen in years. All the favorites- eurosilver, ruler’s court, birdstone are all passing this race, making this renewal a very boring affair. Ok, now that I’ve passed on CUVEE, who will be 7/5 and no value, marooned on the outside with a sprinter’s pedigree, I’m going to play MINISTER ERIC. While he’s never won or gone a route, mandella has always been high on this one and he has that long, loping stride that makes him likely to enjoy routing. TIGER HUNT is my second choice, but at 7/2 or so, he’s no great value. RACE FOR GLORY will be my back-up in here as he has the breeding and conformation to enjoy the distance. ‘glory gets the rail draw and will be forwardly placed throughout; at 8/1, he’s the best value in the race.
TURF : STORMING HOME STORMING HOME STORMING HOME. What a great race- most of the great turf marathoners have made it to the big day and we get to see once and for all that storming home is the best turfer in the world. He’s big, he’s strong and he’s fast and provided, there’s no photographer spooking him near the finish line, I think we’re going to see a real tour de force performance tomorrow. He’s not a lock as high chaparral, the tin man, falbrav, and johar all have chances. Conspicuous by his absence on this aforementioned list is SULAMANI, whom I firmly believe is one of the most overrated horses in the world. He was hopelessly beaten in the Arlington million, but storming home’s antics elevated him to the top. I’m throwing him out completely and I hope the godolphin folks go home empty-handed. The most interesting longshots are the mandella duo- johar and the tin man. Johar is bred to be a champion and may just be coming into his own now. He was put in the awkward position of being on the lead in his last, but rest assured he’ll be off the pace tomorrow. The tin man has always been just a cut below the best, but he was not disgraced vs. high chaparral in last year’s running. I expect him to outrun his odds. My play- storming home over falbrav, high chaparral, the tin man, and johar.
CLASSIC : some of the marquee names are gone, but this is still a great race. I don’t have a strong opinion in here, other than to say that I’m going to play a horse with some tactical speed. It’s rare to see a horse win from way off the pace going a 1 1/4M at santa anita. That means, I’m left with only four choices- MEDAGLIA D’ORO, HOLD THAT TIGER, TEN MOST WANTED and CONGAREE. I’m throwing funny cide out the proverbial window as he couldn’t be coming into a race in a less prepared fashion; if he wins, I’ll be shocked out of my mind. Dynaver, the wiseguy/andy beyer selection is TOO F-ING SLOW TO WIN. Chuck him. Perfect drift would be an interesting option, but the BC Classic as an afterthought? Doesn’t seem right to me. Medaglia d’oro is top class and proven at the distance, but the layoff scares me a bit, notwithstanding the frankel factor. Ten Most Wanted is a lovely horse- he’s got a very efficient, loping stride and since they added the blinkers, he’s been able to sustain his run much better. I love 3 year olds on the improve, so he’s my first pick in here. My second choice is Congaree- who may not be best at a mile and a quarter, has the speed to scare everybody. He’s making his second start off a layoff and he’s been training like a champ in the mornings. If he gets off at north of 5/1, I’m playing him.
In summary, I love Tates Creek and Storming Home- they’ll get heavy play from me in all the pools. Leaning towards ten most wanted and congaree in the classic and I may pass the juvenile altogether.
If anyone is sticking around after the ‘Classic, I’m playing tricks her in the 10th and nose the trade in the 11th.
Good luck everyone.
[This message was edited by mazeltrick on October 25, 2003 at 02:58 AM.]
[This message was edited by mazeltrick on October 25, 2003 at 03:00 AM.]
